- Posted by Victoria Redshaw on February 25, 2010
When I tell people that I’m a Trend Forecaster they often nod knowingly and then ask me where I get my ideas from, which tells me their nod was actually not very ‘knowing’ after all. This is why when I am asked to present a seminar of future design trends, I always take time at the start to explain how I do what I do. By lifting the veil of mystery that surrounds the forecasting industry, I aim to provide seminar audiences with an in-depth understanding and appreciation that it is a logical process. In my experience, this then allows people to take-in the information in a more accepting way and to apply the information with complete confidence.
When I presented my 90 minute seminar at SURFACES earlier this month, I used the first half of the session to explain exactly what Trend Forecasting is, how it works, and why it works. For those of you who were not able to attend the seminar, I would like to share with you in this posting the process we use at Scarlet Opus to predict design trends.
Trend Forecasting is a powerful tool that provides a reliable view of future design trends and allows you to lead with confidence knowing your creative decisions are informed decisions.
There are some common misconceptions about how Trend Forecasters actually forecast design trends for the Interiors market. Allow me to dispel a couple of myths right now; I don’t have a crystal ball! Neither do I wait to see what appears on the catwalks of European fashion houses and simply translate the major themes into Interiors themes. Trend Forecasting is actually much more scientific in its methodology than most people imagine. It is a discipline that involves skills from the worlds of both Design and Social Science.
Basically, we follow a five stage process of research gathering, analysis and translation that results in groupings of information that share common factors and these groupings form the foundation of a season’s trend forecast.
To get to this point, we must first review our last season’s forecast. This is because, in the Interiors sector, trends tend to evolve gradually over time, connecting one season to the next. Because of this, all trends can be tracked over time and this ‘reviewing stage’ gives us our starting point for the new season’s forecast.
Next, we research future events planned to take place over the next 2-3 years. This is the bit that causes people to mention crystal balls but it is really simply a matter of intense, thorough research from reliable sources. It is possible to get access to a huge amount of information regarding all sorts of major future events that are scheduled to take place and it’s also partly about asking the right person the right questions. We research sectors including Environment issues, Politics, Science & Technology, Sport, TV & Film, Architectural Projects, Transport, Major World Events & Anniversaries and global Gallery & Museum Exhibitions. Issues and events planned to take place around the world such as these have an affect on the mood in society, our changing values, priorities and finally they have an eventual influence on the products and styles people will want to have in their homes and expect from hotels and retail environments in the future. These global events and issues may also inspire influential and niche designers whose work will in turn influence other designers, creating further desire and driving demand. All of this information builds up like layers of cake enabling us to forecast what will be to peoples taste at a specific point in the future.
Into the mix, we add information on major current issues that we judge will affect either the season we are trying to forecast or potentially the season following that. We also assess whether the news event will reinforce a current trend or could cause a current trend to change direction.
Then, we add in anything significant and influential that has occurred that we could not have foreseen e.g. an environmental disaster – again assessing if the unexpected event could reinforce or change current trends.
Finally, we analyse all of this information to identify common themes and these groupings form the foundation of our trends. Then we can begin the creative process of translating this information into a forecast of the future Wants, Needs and Desires of consumers and produce a design forecast that identifies the interior schemes, products, colors, patterns, shapes and materials that will match and satisfy consumers future desires.
My job continues to fascinate me and I am privileged that our forecasts help to inform and inspire the creative work of Interior Designs and Product Designers, Manufacturers and Retailers around the world.
If you have any questions or comments regarding how design trends are forecast, please share them here.
www.scarletopus.com
www.trendsblog.co.uk